French President Nicolas Sarkozy was last year caught telling President Barack Obama that he "can't stand" Benjamin Netanyahu and branding the Israeli prime minister “a liar.” But Netanyahu may miss Sarkozy more than most world leaders should the French leader, as seems likely, fail to secure reelection. Not only has Sarkozy been the most Israel-friendly French president ever, but he is also Israel’s best bet for holding Western leaders to a hard line on Iran.
The hyperactive hawkish Sarkozy has played the leading role in pushing both Europe and the U.S. to toughen their stance on Iran and raise pressure on Tehran through sanctions on its energy and banking sectors. Indeed, he has consistently pressed President Obama from the right on the issue, and has been the leading voice of skepticism among Western leaders on diplomatic compromise efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff. Even if his likely successor, Francois Hollande, maintains France's formal stance on Iran, he's unlikely to repeat Sarkozy's activist role in pressing others to a more hawkish position and challenging compromise scenarios.
As Western powers enter negotiations with Iran to settle the nuclear standoff, there's no sign that Iran is about to capitulate to the full menu of Western demands. Still, should Tehran be willing to take concrete and verifiable steps to ease international concerns over the nature of its program, Western powers will face the challenge of defining acceptable compromises. And it's in that discussion that Sarkozy could prove to be a spoiler in a manner that would please Netanyahu.
The Istanbul talks agreed a framework for negotiations based on the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and a principle of reciprocity. Although the NPT obliges Iran to account for all its nuclear work to the satisfaction of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—which Iran has yet to do—it also guarantees Tehran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. That means a diplomatic solution based on the NPT would strengthen safeguards against Iran using its nuclear capability to build weapons, but would not dismantle and remove Iran’s enrichment capability -- as Israel and France have demanded.
The Obama Administration’s position on the enrichment issue has been more ambiguous, having initially inherited the Bush Administration’s zero-enrichment stance, but more recently spoken of Iran having the right to a peaceful nuclear program in line with the NPT. Netanyahu's hopes for pressing the Western powers to resist any compromise that leaves Iran with the capacity to enrich uranium wiil be substantially diminished if Sarkozy leaves the scene.
The French leader has been the leading voice of skepticism over negotiations among Western leaders, and has energetically pressed both the Obama Administration and European governments to adopt tougher sanctions that have had a painful impact on the Iranian economy. Britain supports France’s zero-enrichment demand, but hasn’t been quite as activist in promoting it. London is also more likely, analysts say, to go along with the consensus if Western powers can fashion an interim deal that offers concrete progress in reinforcing barriers to Iran using its nuclear program to create weapons, even if that leaves the issue of Iran’s ongoing low-level enrichment unresolved for now. A nuclear compromise involving steps to diminish the danger of weaponization in the near term, but which leaves Iran with the capacity to enrich uranium and at the same time eases international pressure on Tehran, is precisely what the Israelis fear right now. And Sarkozy, while rejecting Israel’s threat to take military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, could be more willing to push back against a compromise on the enrichment issue than Hollande would be.
The Socialist candidate, if he wins the presidency, is expected to be more of a low-key team player than Sarkozy, who demands the limelight and has been willing to publicly challenge the Obama Administration to take a tougher line. Hollande’s plate will be full in managing domestic challenges, and his key foreign policy priority as president would be renegotiating the treaty to save the eurozone. Foreign policy dossiers such as Iran and Syria are likely to be returned to the French Foreign Ministry, in contrast to Sarkozy’s habit of taking personal charge. So even if the formal policy remains the same, Sarkozy’s ouster would silence the most important cheerleader for a hard line on Iran in the Western camp. That’s why all stakeholders in the Iran nuclear standoff will be watching closely when French voters return to the polls on May 6 to settle the matter of whether Sarkozy will have a second term.
