Mahmoud Jabril’s National Forces Alliance has, apparently, swept to victory in the Libyan parliamentary elections. It is difficult to know who is more surprised – the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Construction Party (who were strongly tipped to win), or seasoned observers, myself included.
The elections were monitored by international observers and there is no reason to doubt that the ballot was free and fair. Two million eight hundred Libyans – more than 60 percent of those eligible to vote – participated and, despite pockets of violence, the polling stations were relatively calm across the nation. Why then has Libya bucked the trend which saw Islamists dominate the post-revolutionary vote in Tunisia and Egypt?
First, the Libyan people are, for the most part, religious people who tend towards Sufi Islam – this is not the brand of Salafi fundamentalism espoused by the Islamists. Although there are some exceptions - for example the eastern region round Benghazi has long been an Islamist stronghold - Libyan Islam can best be described as moderate.
Second, Colonel Gaddafi worked for forty years to demonize the Islamists, whom he saw as the most dangerous threat to his regime, creating a climate of fear and mistrust among the population. He persecuted the Islamists, and in 1996 his forces massacred 1,270 Islamist prisoners at Abu Salim prison. Although the massacre was publically remembered in a ceremony at Abu Salim in June this year, apprehension about extremists remains deep-rooted in Libyan society. The actions of some radical elements in Tunisia and Egypt – like June’s riots after Salafists attacked a Tunis Art Gallery – add to this apprehension.
Third, the Islamists were not as well organized politically as the National Forces Alliance (NFA) parties. Even though they were at the forefront of the fight to overthrow Gadaffi and lost a lot of men, they left it until the last minute to cobble together a political presence just a few months before the elections.
The liberal trend was not only better organized but benefits from experience in government. Paradoxically, Mahmoud Jibril’s experience was as Gadaffi’s economic adviser. Jibril was educated in the US, where he studied Economics, and the NFA ran a smooth and intelligent campaign, very much on the Western model, and designed to have the widest possible appeal.
The NFA focused their liberal manifesto on the issues behind the revolution and post-revolutionary concerns: personal freedom, women's rights, social welfare, national reconciliation and so on.
Fourth, attitudes to the West. We should not forget that the Libyans regard the ‘liberal’ West favorably, and with gratitude, since Nato’s military intervention played a crucial role in overthrowing Gadaffi. In this it is different to Egypt and Tunisia who achieved victory unaided.
Some cautious optimism is appropriate but the elections do not herald a stable and prosperous future for Libya – at least, not yet. Libyan society remains divided along tribal and regional lines. Some of the tribes feel marginalized – particularly those who were loyal to the former regime - and the people in the oil-rich Eastern part of the country wish to secede entirely and establish their own independent state.
These are the main challenges the new government will face:
First, will the Islamists accept the result and hand over the reins of power to their Liberal opponents? We are already hearing voices raising questions as to the integrity and loyalty of Mr Jibril - Mohammed Sawan, the leader of the ruling Justice and Building Brotherhood, described Jibril’s coterie as allies of the regime of Colonel Gaddafi. If the Islamists reject the election results and rebel against Jibril’s NFA, this may lead to political paralysis or even bloody clashes in which the Islamists would most likely prevail because they have arms, supporters and military battalions.
The second challenge is how to form a government of national unity which reflects the components of the Libyan people's cultural, regional, tribal diversity and enjoys the support and the support of neighboring countries.
The third challenge: Security. Libya does not have a workable Army or Police Force. The country is bristling with guns and armed militias are engaged in ongoing turf wars, robberies, ambushes and kidnappings – only this week the country’s Olympics Chief was snatched by gunmen while in June the Tarhouna militia took over Tripoli Airport. Will the new government be able to convince the militias to surrender their arms? This seems highly unlikely.
Fourth challenge: rebuilding state structures and institutions; to stop all human rights violations and acts of discrimination, ethnic, tribal and regional on the basis of color, gender, race, and the release of all detainees including those accused of belonging to the former regime, as long as they have not committed crimes punishable by law, and if they have committed these crimes, it must be brought to courts in the framework of a just judiciary independent.
The fourth challenge: to maintain unity and territorial demographics of Libya, in the face of separatist movements.
Then there is the question of rooting out corruption, reinforcing the principle of equitable distribution of wealth, and the provision of basic services, and plans include the development of all parts of the country without any discrimination.
The Libyan people suffered for a long time under Gadaffi whose provision for the people’s education, health and welfare was lamentable given that Libya sits on enormous reserves of oil earning more than sixty billion dollars a year for the national treasury.
The elections have brought Libya many new opportunities and it is to be hoped that the new elite can avoid the temptations of self-interest, and act instead for the whole nation with the goal of peace, coexistence, harmony and prosperity. After all, that is what more than 30,000 Libyans gave their lives for.
